By M. Antonio G. Ibarra
MANILA, Oct. 28 The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has said that current key oceanic and atmospheric indicators are near the thresholds satisfying a condition defining a La Nina re-emergence even as the northeast monsoon is expected to prevail during the observance of All Saints' and All Souls' Days next week.
Anthony Lucero, PAGASA weather specialist, told a press briefing held on Friday at the PAGASA Science Garden Amihan Conference Room in Quezon City that recent observations on sea surface temperature over the central eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean show sign of cooling trends since August 2011, indicating strong possibility of re-emerging La Nina event.
Lucero, however, said dynamic and statistical computer models suggest that the present cooling of the Pacific Ocean waters can be classified as weak compared to last years La Nina which started on the third quarter of 2010 and lasted up to May 2011.
Most parts of the country, particularly the eastern sections, will likely experience near-to-above normal rainfall conditions from November 2011 to March 2012, he noted.
He said it is expected that these wet weather conditions during the inclusive months may trigger flashfloods and landslides.
PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel T. Servando hoped that a tailend of the cold front that triggered rains causing widespread flooding and landslides in the Bicol region in January this year would not interact with the present La Nina phenomenon.
Meanwhile, Robert Sawi, PAGASA Weather Division chief, said a shear line (convergence of northeasterly and easterly winds) will affect the eastern provinces of Luzon, particularly Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quezon and Camarines provinces, and bring light rains beginning Saturday (October 29).
Sawi said that on Sunday, the expected approach of a low pressure area over the Visayas and Mindanao embedded along the activated Inter-tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) will bring scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms. The ITCZ will continue to prevail on Monday and rains are expected over Mindanao, the eastern section of the Visayas and Bicol region on November 1 and 2.
Servando reiterated PAGASAs gale force warning for residents along the coastal areas of Northern and Central Luzon not to venture out into the sea due to big waves generated by the strong to gale force northeasterly winds. (PNA) scs/FFC/magi